Journal

DJI

2011-09-07T00:05:00.002-04:00

9600

CTSH

2010-11-04T09:22:00.002-04:00

CTSH

2010-10-31T23:37:00.002-04:00

Cognizant Technology Solutions

NEM

2010-10-28T00:25:00.001-04:00

VECO

2010-10-25T23:38:00.002-04:00

CRM

2010-10-25T10:18:00.002-04:00

FCX

2010-10-22T23:55:00.002-04:00

CRM

2010-10-22T23:29:00.003-04:00

AKAM

2010-10-21T23:12:00.002-04:00

CAT

2010-10-20T23:25:00.002-04:00

FCX

2010-10-20T23:10:00.002-04:00

NFLX

2010-10-20T22:28:00.002-04:00

FCX

2010-10-19T00:50:00.002-04:00

PNC

2010-10-16T00:23:00.002-04:00

AEM

2010-10-12T22:02:00.001-04:00

CMI

2010-10-12T21:57:00.001-04:00

EQIX

2010-10-11T22:00:00.002-04:00

PNC

2010-10-10T23:21:00.003-04:00

AKAM

2010-10-10T22:58:00.001-04:00

STEC (STEC Inc)

2010-10-08T00:04:00.002-04:00

APA (Apache Corp)

2010-10-07T00:06:00.002-04:00

SLB (Schlumberger Ltd)

2010-10-05T23:09:00.002-04:00

ANR (Alpha Natural Resources Inc)

2010-10-05T22:40:00.000-04:00

X (United States Steel Corp)

2010-10-05T22:32:00.000-04:00

X (United States Steel Corp)

2010-10-04T15:24:00.002-04:00

X (United States Steel Corp)

2010-10-03T23:41:00.003-04:00

X did find a slight break below its wedge,it also bounced at some daily support.A directional break needs to happen soon as the apex of the wedge pattern is getting closer.So two scenarios, either this breaks down on increased volume and tags 38 if 42 goes,or this is just another headfake and X trades back thru the apex at about 45 for a powerful move higher.I believe in the first camp from what the chart tells me at the moment,but also keeping in mind that all patterns are prone to failure.

X (United States Steel Corp.)

2010-09-22T23:07:00.003-04:00

Follow up to this previous chart here

X

2010-09-22T00:22:00.002-04:00

Don't economic recoveries come with a demand for steel?Hmmm X better get above 48 soon or I smell 38 coming.

Big Brown : UPS

2010-08-23T23:47:00.001-04:00

SHLD

2010-08-12T19:05:00.001-04:00

$BKX

2010-08-12T18:10:00.000-04:00

The Board Game!

2010-08-12T14:05:00.003-04:00

Remember this blast from the past? Welcome to the stock market,as we know it now.Controlled by a few,sure you might pass go,collect your $200's,but land on board walk or park place,and prepare to empty your pockets!

Magic Eight Ball: predicting price movement

2010-08-10T11:35:00.000-04:00

Great excerpt from The Disciplined Trader,goes as follows:

"If you want to learn to predict price movement,you don't need to pay attention to reasons. What you need to do is determine how the majority of traders perceive the external conditions in relationship to either their fear of scarcity,or their fear of missing out,or both."

By Mark Douglas

Fed Day Tuesday 2:15

2010-08-09T12:23:00.000-04:00

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!

Recognize Failed Patterns

2010-08-02T15:03:00.000-04:00

Every pattern has the potential to be negated.

Meet Dagger!

2010-07-21T23:06:00.000-04:00

There"s Bulls,there's Bears,and then there is Dagger. Funny note: A cloak and dagger attack is one in which a deceitful, traitorous, or concealed enemy attacks a person.

Other related articles:Here

Lesson

2010-07-19T13:52:00.000-04:00

Trust your own setups and act,do not wait for affirmation from anyone!

Taking Note

2010-07-18T23:39:00.000-04:00

$BKX took a run thru the psycho 50,only to fail up at 51 and fall right back,yes not at 50 as you would expect on any retest,but slice right back through 50 and below 48 to close at 47.06.Not exactly a sign of strength.

Spy trading near 106 again,not exactly a sign of strength,under 105 and I'll be looking for 101 to break next time,"the real Head and Shoulders" will be quite fun for those unprepared.

AUD/JPY 73 seems to me a critical area if it ever breaks

Oil um,yeah ok next topic. (80-70 rangebound)

Spy Head and Shoulder follow up

2010-07-02T12:10:00.000-04:00

The spy head and shoulders pattern I mentioned in may here has been playing out.Will it follow thru with targets now,only Mr.Market can say.I would think if we get a weekly close under 101 area,then yes it should follow thru to at least 95 area.Then possibly 88ish.There is also the potential for another bounce from here if 101 holds.What I would actually like to see is more of a slanted head and shoulder pattern like the one I originally anticipated.Everyone see's the neckline as that straight line across the 104-105 area.I would like to think more that the neckline is just forming here at 101,then possibly bounce back to create another shoulder.Keep in mind that patterns can form within patterns.Watch weekly closes over next few weeks for direction.This area of 101 is a larger confluence area,coinciding with a longer fib retracement,a moving average,and a prior support area.Look for over/under here.

SPY "Potential Pattern"

2010-05-26T09:11:00.000-04:00

SPY Pattern

2010-05-25T08:57:00.000-04:00

In reference to my previous post here ,seems to be slowly playing out.This is anticipating a pattern that has not completed yet and will take weeks or more to form.I'm watching to see if spy gets to 101 area to form a neckline,then possibly form the right shoulder of what is appearing to be a head and shoulder bearish pattern,but we'll see in time.

Areas to watch

2010-05-20T12:55:00.000-04:00

The markets are getting sold off as I write this.Areas to watch on the SPY are here at 108,105(tail of the flash crash,and a measured move of the wedge that was formed and now playing out.),102-101 coincides with the 100sma and 38% retrace of the entire rally from 2009and last,but not least,around 95 which would be a 50% retrace of the "rally".Keeping in mind that patterns take time to form,and that all technical analysis can get thrown out the window during "crashes" these are general areas to watch and see how price acts around them. On the upside 112-115 will be an area to contend with,but I think at some point we could see that spy 95 area.Have to see how things play out over time,probably next 1-3 months.

Rise of the machines?

2010-05-14T08:48:00.000-04:00

Favorite Quotes

2010-05-11T11:41:00.000-04:00

“It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! ” Jesse Livermore

"One common adage...that is completely wrongheaded is: You can"t go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses,professionals go broke by taking small profits." Bill Eckhardt

EMINI

2010-03-31T11:34:00.000-04:00

uptrend remains intact at this point until proven otherwise

EMINI hourly

2010-03-31T09:53:00.001-04:00

Rising Channel on 60 minute starting to break,see if it can close under for more than one hour,then should see 1148 area.Is light volume week so may not be much to this,but we'll see.Any hourly close(2 closes) back above that trendline then channel still intact.

EMINI

2010-03-10T16:22:00.000-05:00

Could pullin around 1120 and still be intact

FSLR (you can run but you can't hide!)

2010-02-04T22:26:00.000-05:00

FSLR loses 109 should see sub 100's soon.Think 120 is good line in the sand now.Ultimately I see FSLR tagging mid 80's again and take care of the unfilled gap.

Bulls on the run

2010-02-04T22:08:00.000-05:00

SPX

emini 2 hour chart

2010-01-28T10:18:00.001-05:00

riding the channel down

ODFL

2010-01-27T23:26:00.000-05:00

Has earnings thurs.am,could be setting up for a bounce here.Must hold 26.Bounced off a previous uptrend line that correlated with another previous trendline.See if the transports can muster up a bounce or not.

Fugly Emini Chart

2010-01-25T23:06:00.000-05:00

Not a pretty picture,quick snapshot of the daily emini.The wedge of worry is broken.

IDEAS

2009-12-12T09:52:00.000-05:00

These two are still intact:

TSTC had a nice base from middle of November,needs a slight rest.As long as it holds 14 area breakout looks to be intact still.Anything below that would be time to re-evaluate any trade in it.A base between 15-17 would be ideal,with a close eye on any break above 18,which could lead to a higher price of at least 23.50.

CAAS resting here also basing after a nice run,20.00 to 22.50 area to watch,could pullback to 18 and still be one to watch,anything below 16 and trade over,on the long side anyway.Looking for CAAS to trade a tight range for a few days should see another pop.

New Ideas:

AMSC with a hold above 38.62 and a break thru 40.00 could see higher around 43 to 47 areas.It must hold 37.75 for now,a base between 38 and 40 looks to be happening for now,looks primed in next few days.Any failure thru 35 area and trade over for this one.

CENX just broke out on the daily at 12.00 level.Thru 13 with some punch looks like it can see 15 then 17 possibly.Might need to base soon,see if it can hold this breakout at 12 for now.Watch AA also if that goes thru 15 this one should follow,should being key.

APWR revisiting the 18 level.Monthly fib retracement is 17.44.Now have a weekly close above that level for the second time.Thru 18 should get some continuation,take note the resistance at 19 on the monthly.Want to see 17.44 hold strongly then daily highs of 18.70.Next target around 21.00. Below 16 again,and this one might be done for awhile.

FSIN is off the radar for now unless it ever gets above 10.00

Rating these plays from A-D:

TSTC A+
CAAS A+
AMSC B
CENX A
APWR B
FSIN D

IDEAS

2009-12-06T17:01:00.000-05:00

TSTC had a nice base from middle of November,needs a slight rest.As long as it holds 14 area breakout looks to be intact still.Anything below that would be time to re-evaluate any trade in it.A base between 15-17 would be ideal,with a close eye on any break above 18,which could lead to a higher price of at least 23.50.

CAAS resting here also basing after a nice run,20.00 to 22.50 area to watch,could pullback to 18 and still be one to watch,anything below 16 and trade over,on the long side anyway.Looking for CAAS to trade a tight range for a few days should see another pop.

FSIN basing a little above 8.50ish needs to clear 9.00,9.50,then 10.00 with some punch could see 12.00 at least then 15 possibly if markets stay strong.

PNC worth a shot here with a 53 hold maybe for a bounce back to 54.30 to 55.00,but keep in mind a retest of 50.60 also in the cards if 53 cant hold.If totall failure comes into play 48 area most likely next.

Is Green Good?

2009-11-21T09:56:00.000-05:00

Last month I set a goal of being green everyday. Boy could I have not been more wrong in setting that kind of goal in this type of market.For a while the total opposite happened,and I was more inclined to overtrade,especially if I was already negative on the day. Setting goals of making money everyday,for myself anyway,is probably not the best approach. Though it is a great incentive,I think what matters is how did I get green if I did. Was I re-enforcing bad habits,by doing just about anything to get green? For example was I taking A+ setups,or was I jumping on every c and d play out there,in the name of getting green on my p&l? Was I sitting patiently letting setups come to me,and at the same time gaining a more clear perspective of what was happening for the day? In conclusion I believe setting a goal of being green everyday is a stretch,and not helpful to sustain a trading career over the long run.So scratch that approach for me anyway.I think a few guidlines for my trading will be a better approach.

Don't overtrade,no need to be involved on every tick in the market.

Determine the type of trading day it is before jumping in.

Take trades at important levels.

Wait for plays to develop,preferrably A+ setups.

Money will take care of itself,thru good trading,discipline,and patience.

Thursday

2009-11-19T10:08:00.000-05:00

Market gapped lower this a.m below previous 2 days lows,and followed through to emini 1090 area. Saw Rig short setting up as it was near its 50 day sma of 86.87,with resist near the 87.50 level.Followed thru down to 85 level for a gap fill on 60 min time frame.Watching the 86.25 to 85.50 area now,and oil against 78.67.Had three green lights on that one,with eminis coming down,oil coming down and a significant area in the stock being broken on all time frames.

Wednesday

2009-11-18T12:02:00.000-05:00

Trading this a.m I was off,trying to make a trade happen from X against the 42.50 level,cost me a little.finally got some focus back in pru for quick long and pnc for quick long.My main setup was APWR,but i strayed from it early on,finally honed in on it,saw bid holding 13.50 area,then walking up bringing in fresh buying(or short covering,but whatever).Was looking for a move above 14.00,went to 14.44,then pulled in back to the 14.00,acting as a floor for now.See how it handles that level thru day,also keeping eye on X at 43 level,can't seem to stay above that for now,but it is above its 50 day sma at 42.57 ish.

Tuesday

2009-11-17T14:18:00.000-05:00

Mon was showing relative strength compared to rest of market early in the a.m.Opened into support area then thru 75 with a base at 75.50,gave another opportunity to get long on the pullback just below 76 then off to 77 area. Mon on the daily has much more resistance up here than POT.POT was the better play with no real resistance in the last six months above the 105-106 area.Neverthe less was good trade to follow the relative strength on a basically inside day in the markets.

2009-11-16T08:53:00.000-05:00

Looking like X wants to make a run at the 50 day sma as i mentioned friday if it stayed above the daily neckline.It's gapping up about $1 or so this a.m.See if it can hold 40 if does should be able to see 42.60 area next.Watching this gap up in market to see if it can hold or not.

Charts to watch

2009-11-13T14:30:00.000-05:00

HIG looking weaker again today,although in a range of about 25-23 on a daily,i think a close below 24.30 today might take it back to 23 for a test,any close below 23,very bearish on daily chart.

Friday

2009-11-13T10:58:00.000-05:00

Not trading much today,just watching how market held emini lows from yesterday around 1082.50 area then 1085,support.A lot of bounces from that area except for GS,still acting weaker for now,insures still under 50 day moving averages,solars have some snapback,with YGE reporting earnings ,am.Oil bounced back over 76,but still under the 77 level.X bounced off its 60 min uptrendline still in place,unless 39 is breached,still testing neckline from previous daily head and shoulders,wouldn't be suprised to see it retest its 50 day moving average around 42.60 area if gets over neckline,otherwise still a bearish pattern,under that.

Tuesday

2009-11-09T22:58:00.000-05:00

FCX

Levels
80.30
81.57
82.94
83.70
84.28(weekly highs)

X

Levels
37.50
38.00
39.00
40.29

FSLR

Levels
112.09
117.14
117.75
120.50
123.70

Watchlist

2009-11-08T13:02:00.000-05:00

PNC

Levels
52.70
53.00
53.86

Targets
54.40
56.20
57.50